Back to main event page

Carson Division 2016

Advanced Insights

Qualification Match Predictions (?)

Remember, match predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Win/Loss prediction accuracy: 74%

Win/Loss prediction accuracy (>75% confidence): 86%

Match score prediction average error: 14.8

Match Red Alliance Scores:
Actual
(Predicted)
Breach / Capture:
Actual
(Predicted Probability)
Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution Win/Loss
Prediction
Probability
Win/Loss
Prediction
Correct
Qualifications
5454 2137 2122 110
(109)
B
95% / 39%
50%
233 1625 6098 85
(109)
B
95% / 48%
5332 60 2978 53
(74)
--
79% / 5%
86%
1533 5897 1156 42
(112)
--
84% / 5%
904 5572 5167 99
(94)
B
79% / 20%
63%
5907 3352 610 111
(102)
B / C
95% / 43%
868 4135 319 99
(114)
B
84% / 54%
68%
1137 2655 2771 101
(129)
B
95% / 84%
5913 4121 3021 81
(83)
B
95% / 5%
58%
5879 11 2202 56
(76)
B
61% / 5%
225 973 1718 114
(145)
B
95% / 78%
93%
4131 51 5084 54
(109)
--
95% / 42%
746 1258 2052 119
(109)
B / C
95% / 42%
85%
2996 1126 2445 79
(84)
B
92% / 5%
6144 3688 2761 109
(89)
B
88% / 5%
95%
3538 1024 2474 162
(126)
B / C
95% / 46%
2485 2590 1939 110
(104)
B
91% / 49%
77%
4026 4362 135 110
(125)
B
95% / 47%
3824 2403 2526 101
(102)
B
92% / 13%
52%
5895 5663 5712 110
(103)
B
95% / 23%
1987 1619 41 140
(123)
B / C
95% / 42%
90%
1369 2486 4592 43
(84)
--
93% / 6%
296 2067 6025 84
(94)
--
73% / 5%
81%
1918 525 1159 124
(125)
B
95% / 18%
4264 4028 1156 110
(112)
B / C
72% / 32%
73%
3970 904 5084 131
(93)
B
82% / 19%
3538 5332 1718 115
(101)
B
88% / 36%
55%
2122 5167 2445 119
(98)
B / C
95% / 47%
3688 2978 2202 91
(86)
B
56% / 5%
72%
2137 5907 4026 125
(102)
B / C
95% / 24%
1939 868 610 123
(124)
B / C
95% / 90%
60%
5895 973 746 139
(116)
B / C
91% / 46%
2403 4121 5897 89
(63)
B
73% / 5%
68%
51 2655 4592 87
(75)
B
94% / 22%
41 2067 4362 145
(133)
B / C
95% / 34%
87%
1625 2996 11 142
(101)
B / C
95% / 17%
4131 3824 1159 106
(102)
B
95% / 20%
69%
1024 5572 4264 130
(116)
B / C
83% / 55%
3021 3970 2052 109
(131)
--
95% / 58%
58%
1918 6098 2474 117
(124)
B
95% / 40%
1533 296 319 93
(97)
B
71% / 31%
78%
2486 5454 5913 109
(74)
B
82% / 5%
1137 2526 525 104
(103)
B
95% / 21%
80%
225 4028 2485 130
(128)
B / C
88% / 62%
3352 2590 4135 99
(89)
B
92% / 5%
72%
1126 1619 233 120
(105)
B / C
95% / 38%
6144 2771 5663 102
(105)
--
90% / 13%
85%
1369 60 1258 95
(74)
B
82% / 8%
5712 135 1987 113
(118)
B
95% / 33%
95%
5879 2761 6025 80
(47)
B
48% / 5%
1625 5084 868 133
(119)
B
94% / 51%
50%
904 1918 2403 151
(119)
B / C
95% / 7%
3824 5907 3538 127
(125)
B
95% / 64%
57%
2486 973 2137 160
(118)
B / C
95% / 60%
51 2445 2978 77
(59)
B
60% / 5%
95%
3021 4028 5572 61
(111)
B
81% / 11%
525 610 2202 122
(120)
B
92% / 71%
93%
5332 2655 6098 104
(85)
B
95% / 16%
4026 5913 2067 86
(104)
--
95% / 24%
66%
233 4264 5895 142
(115)
B / C
92% / 51%
5454 3688 5897 92
(96)
B
82% / 19%
81%
4135 225 4362 127
(117)
B / C
88% / 28%
11 2761 135 77
(109)
--
95% / 28%
70%
296 5167 746 99
(93)
B
95% / 17%
2771 6025 1156 85
(111)
--
47% / 34%
74%
1126 1939 1718 108
(92)
B / C
95% / 28%
1533 1137 2474 111
(105)
B / C
92% / 34%
70%
1619 1159 1258 84
(117)
B
95% / 40%
2526 2996 2590 105
(109)
B
95% / 51%
81%
1987 6144 4121 83
(88)
B
94% / 5%
1369 4131 5879 82
(61)
B
88% / 5%
95%
3352 2052 2485 109
(101)
B
93% / 22%
5663 2122 3970 122
(107)
B
95% / 29%
92%
41 5712 1024 135
(148)
B
92% / 86%
319 60 2202 93
(90)
B
77% / 27%
59%
4592 2067 5572 77
(84)
B
83% / 5%
2445 4362 2137 137
(117)
B
95% / 24%
58%
2486 6025 5895 124
(109)
B
75% / 27%
5913 1258 3538 108
(99)
B
95% / 38%
63%
2978 135 2403 117
(89)
B
55% / 9%
5332 1137 5454 101
(92)
B / C
95% / 25%
92%
1987 973 2590 161
(131)
B / C
95% / 71%
51 4121 4264 92
(92)
B
95% / 19%
95%
2052 525 1619 115
(144)
B / C
95% / 80%
233 5167 1156 105
(103)
B / C
78% / 55%
88%
1159 2485 6144 96
(77)
B
79% / 5%
296 3824 225 132
(125)
B
95% / 59%
63%
2771 2996 610 169
(135)
B / C
91% / 76%
4135 1625 4131 111
(99)
B
92% / 16%
56%
746 4028 5712 79
(104)
B
95% / 23%
1126 2655 4026 80
(89)
B
95% / 27%
95%
5907 1024 1918 160
(154)
B / C
95% / 90%
6098 4592 5084 97
(74)
B
95% / 5%
91%
1533 5663 3688 112
(104)
B
89% / 5%
3352 2122 868 143
(117)
B / C
95% / 62%
89%
3021 60 2761 87
(77)
B
69% / 5%
5897 1718 904 104
(94)
B
83% / 5%
53%
2474 1369 11 77
(91)
B
81% / 29%
3970 41 319 150
(127)
B / C
90% / 64%
95%
5879 1939 2526 70
(70)
--
75% / 5%
4264 2202 2996 117
(107)
B / C
95% / 43%
50%
2403 5712 2486 115
(107)
B / C
95% / 44%
225 5572 5913 129
(97)
B / C
87% / 7%
66%
1126 1625 5332 110
(108)
B
92% / 51%
5895 1918 2590 152
(157)
B / C
95% / 83%
95%
1156 3538 525 115
(113)
B
75% / 38%
2655 5663 135 118
(99)
B / C
95% / 14%
79%
51 6144 5454 89
(82)
B
88% / 19%
5084 6025 11 82
(78)
B
69% / 17%
63%
1137 1369 5907 103
(88)
B
95% / 33%
1159 4121 2761 90
(69)
B
93% / 5%
95%
973 1258 4362 124
(139)
B / C
95% / 77%
2052 4028 1533 170
(112)
B / C
84% / 45%
51%
233 4026 868 139
(111)
B / C
95% / 55%
1024 2485 3021 132
(121)
B / C
75% / 60%
59%
319 610 1619 153
(128)
B / C
95% / 94%
4592 3352 2474 115
(89)
B / C
95% / 8%
87%
2137 3824 746 111
(123)
B
95% / 40%
2978 1987 3970 110
(97)
B
74% / 5%
86%
5167 2771 2067 147
(135)
B / C
94% / 68%
60 2445 1718 138
(89)
B
95% / 5%
62%
296 41 4135 100
(96)
B
76% / 13%
2526 3688 2122 147
(117)
B / C
84% / 68%
66%
4131 904 1939 109
(106)
B / C
95% / 35%
5879 6098 4028 108
(90)
B
95% / 5%
58%
5897 2996 3538 122
(97)
B
85% / 9%
2485 5895 1619 139
(131)
B / C
94% / 54%
88%
2761 2202 1625 112
(96)
B
91% / 14%
1258 1156 4026 79
(90)
B
76% / 42%
59%
3352 11 5454 80
(84)
B
95% / 20%
2403 1126 2137 121
(114)
B / C
95% / 43%
53%
3021 5167 525 97
(111)
B
95% / 39%
225 2067 2474 165
(141)
B / C
95% / 77%
72%
135 868 4121 125
(125)
B
95% / 44%
1369 51 3824 50
(90)
--
94% / 7%
74%
3970 1533 2526 94
(106)
B
72% / 13%
6144 610 5084 111
(107)
B / C
94% / 30%
55%
4135 2486 2052 129
(111)
B / C
84% / 46%
4362 5332 1939 81
(108)
B
90% / 47%
75%
296 4592 5907 88
(93)
B
95% / 23%
2771 4131 973 165
(143)
B / C
89% / 59%
63%
5913 41 1918 110
(131)
B
93% / 39%
4264 5663 2590 125
(112)
B / C
95% / 45%
84%
2122 5897 6025 88
(87)
B
56% / 5%
1137 2445 1024 131
(129)
B
95% / 57%
82%
904 60 5879 87
(95)
B
84% / 22%
6098 5712 1159 74
(86)
B
95% / 14%
68%
319 2978 1718 120
(99)
B
71% / 44%
233 1987 746 97
(105)
B
95% / 36%
50%
5572 3688 2655 105
(105)
B
95% / 32%
525 1126 6144 105
(97)
B
95% / 17%
57%
11 1533 3824 120
(102)
B
75% / 36%
2771 5454 2202 78
(113)
--
73% / 48%
66%
2526 2474 5084 87
(102)
--
85% / 31%
4121 5907 4135 70
(89)
B
89% / 15%
95%
2403 2485 2122 139
(125)
B / C
92% / 67%
5897 3970 3352 95
(90)
B
90% / 5%
75%
3538 296 1137 96
(105)
B / C
95% / 34%
1619 2996 1918 126
(140)
B / C
95% / 65%
71%
1939 135 2137 102
(121)
B
88% / 60%
41 51 5879 103
(91)
B
82% / 12%
66%
5332 1159 746 96
(79)
B
90% / 7%
904 2761 2486 121
(111)
B
91% / 25%
75%
2978 2655 233 102
(87)
B / C
66% / 29%
4592 1258 1024 115
(123)
B / C
95% / 78%
69%
1718 2590 4028 121
(140)
B / C
95% / 68%
2052 319 1625 150
(143)
B / C
95% / 78%
91%
6025 3688 60 72
(102)
--
84% / 26%
6098 5895 3021 88
(111)
B
95% / 34%
89%
4264 225 1987 127
(139)
B / C
95% / 86%
868 5167 1369 107
(102)
B
90% / 40%
54%
5913 4362 5712 107
(99)
B
95% / 15%
610 4131 5663 124
(117)
B / C
95% / 34%
73%
2445 2067 1156 114
(103)
B
88% / 23%
4026 973 2996 97
(124)
B
95% / 53%
85%
5572 4135 3970 79
(85)
--
86% / 5%
6144 1918 4028 157
(121)
B
95% / 24%
79%
41 2202 3352 97
(100)
B
95% / 12%
1126 1159 2486 92
(98)
B / C
95% / 43%
63%
2526 5897 135 84
(88)
--
65% / 6%
2137 2771 4264 126
(141)
B
87% / 73%
78%
5332 1024 4121 118
(118)
B / C
95% / 59%
5712 2590 5907 148
(117)
B / C
95% / 83%
75%
2474 51 60 87
(98)
B
84% / 31%
11 3538 233 100
(111)
B
95% / 55%
53%
5663 1939 225 133
(108)
B
95% / 36%
1625 296 1369 68
(86)
--
82% / 8%
68%
2978 3021 1156 109
(71)
B
51% / 5%
1987 5084 4026 112
(92)
B
95% / 24%
84%
319 3824 2445 116
(120)
B
95% / 48%
5167 4592 5454 97
(86)
B
95% / 28%
95%
5895 2052 4131 144
(145)
B
95% / 70%
2655 2122 973 187
(137)
B / C
95% / 82%
88%
2067 5879 1533 120
(104)
B
93% / 16%
746 1619 4362 85
(114)
B
95% / 36%
53%
904 525 5913 120
(112)
B
95% / 5%
6098 5572 6025 113
(61)
B
73% / 5%
95%
2485 1258 868 144
(121)
--
95% / 81%
1137 2403 3688 125
(122)
B / C
95% / 52%
51%
2761 610 1718 142
(122)
B
88% / 58%
4135 1156 2202 102
(73)
B
55% / 5%
95%
1987 1024 51 132
(124)
B
92% / 69%
2486 1625 5167 95
(126)
B
95% / 62%
85%
1939 2474 4121 100
(94)
B
95% / 23%
4028 973 1126 142
(129)
B / C
95% / 58%
88%
1369 319 5663 80
(85)
B
78% / 5%
11 5895 2122 133
(136)
B / C
95% / 81%
92%
2996 1159 2978 82
(89)
B
82% / 21%
6025 3538 868 167
(116)
B / C
92% / 31%
61%
1619 4131 5454 124
(106)
B
95% / 33%
4362 233 1918 116
(132)
B
95% / 57%
83%
3824 60 1137 135
(103)
B / C
91% / 35%
1533 5572 610 115
(114)
B
71% / 57%
82%
2590 41 135 154
(143)
B
94% / 72%
2052 904 4026 126
(122)
B / C
95% / 53%
78%
3021 2771 5897 92
(96)
B
55% / 9%
2655 5084 1258 101
(103)
B / C
95% / 51%
63%
296 2137 5913 109
(95)
B / C
94% / 5%
746 6144 2403 82
(96)
B
95% / 18%
86%
6098 225 3970 132
(131)
B / C
95% / 44%
2445 2761 5907 61
(103)
--
95% / 24%
77%
2526 4592 4264 98
(84)
B
93% / 20%
2485 5712 5332 90
(98)
B
79% / 38%
93%
3352 2067 3688 95
(121)
B
95% / 41%
1718 525 2486 151
(124)
B / C
95% / 58%
67%
5879 868 5663 125
(109)
B
95% / 9%
41 5895 3538 160
(144)
B / C
95% / 76%
95%
904 4121 1126 88
(98)
B
95% / 12%
5897 5167 51 105
(76)
B / C
91% / 5%
95%
1258 2122 319 120
(133)
B
95% / 95%
2137 4028 60 136
(122)
B
95% / 41%
66%
2403 1987 11 96
(108)
B
95% / 41%
233 4592 5913 88
(90)
B
95% / 24%
82%
3970 6025 610 122
(120)
B
78% / 65%
4135 1939 2761 68
(75)
B
54% / 5%
95%
3824 6098 2067 185
(122)
B / C
95% / 43%
1619 5712 1137 98
(111)
B
95% / 52%
89%
296 4026 6144 85
(79)
B
90% / 14%
5332 1533 5907 126
(104)
B / C
84% / 44%
53%
2996 3021 4131 108
(106)
B
95% / 23%
225 1159 1369 110
(91)
B
77% / 16%
79%
2590 2202 2655 135
(115)
B / C
95% / 58%
1718 1918 2485 127
(131)
B / C
86% / 51%
95%
746 5454 4264 80
(89)
--
94% / 34%
1024 3352 973 157
(143)
B / C
95% / 83%
94%
2978 2052 2526 89
(99)
B
63% / 21%
5572 2474 5879 96
(88)
B
79% / 6%
67%
1156 5084 4362 128
(102)
B / C
83% / 36%
135 525 2445 127
(115)
B / C
93% / 27%
73%
2771 3688 1625 131
(136)
B / C
80% / 49%

Ranking Predictions (?)

Remember, ranking predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Predictions will update throughout the event.

Predicted rankings as of qualification match #125

Predicted Rank Team Average Rank Highest Rank Median Rank Lowest Rank Average RP Highest RP Lowest RP
1 973 1 1 1 1 38.0 38 38
2 2590 2 2 2 2 33.0 33 33
3 225 3 3 3 3 32.0 32 32
4 5895 4 4 4 4 32.0 32 32
5 2122 5 5 5 5 32.0 32 32
6 1718 6 6 6 6 32.0 32 32
7 1024 7 7 7 7 31.0 31 31
8 2052 8 8 8 8 31.0 31 31
9 1918 9 9 9 9 31.0 31 31
10 2137 10 10 10 10 30.0 30 30
11 1619 11 11 11 11 30.0 30 30
12 610 12 12 12 12 30.0 30 30
13 4264 13 13 13 13 29.0 29 29
14 1137 14 14 14 14 29.0 29 29
15 41 15 15 15 15 28.0 28 28
16 5907 16 16 16 16 28.0 28 28
17 3352 17 17 17 17 28.0 28 28
18 2485 18 18 18 18 27.0 27 27
19 319 19 19 19 19 27.0 27 27
20 4028 20 20 20 20 27.0 27 27
21 2474 21 21 21 21 27.0 27 27
22 5663 22 22 22 22 26.0 26 26
23 4362 23 23 23 23 26.0 26 26
24 2486 24 24 24 24 26.0 26 26
25 2996 25 25 25 25 26.0 26 26
26 2771 26 26 26 26 25.0 25 25
27 2655 27 27 27 27 25.0 25 25
28 1126 28 28 28 28 25.0 25 25
29 2403 29 29 29 29 25.0 25 25
30 904 30 30 30 30 25.0 25 25
31 3538 31 31 31 31 24.0 24 24
32 1533 32 32 32 32 24.0 24 24
33 1987 33 33 33 33 23.0 23 23
34 525 34 34 34 34 23.0 23 23
35 5712 35 35 35 35 23.0 23 23
36 5167 36 36 36 36 23.0 23 23
37 2445 37 37 37 37 23.0 23 23
38 2067 38 38 38 38 22.0 22 22
39 5913 39 39 39 39 22.0 22 22
40 3688 40 40 40 40 22.0 22 22
41 1258 41 41 41 41 21.0 21 21
42 233 42 42 42 42 21.0 21 21
43 868 43 43 43 43 20.0 20 20
44 4131 44 44 44 44 20.0 20 20
45 3970 45 45 45 45 20.0 20 20
46 2978 46 46 46 46 20.0 20 20
47 3824 47 47 47 47 19.0 19 19
48 4026 48 48 48 48 19.0 19 19
49 135 49 49 49 49 19.0 19 19
50 1939 50 50 50 50 19.0 19 19
51 60 51 51 51 51 19.0 19 19
52 2202 52 52 52 52 19.0 19 19
53 1625 53 53 53 53 18.0 18 18
54 6098 54 54 54 54 18.0 18 18
55 296 55 55 55 55 18.0 18 18
56 2526 56 56 56 56 18.0 18 18
57 5084 57 57 57 57 17.0 17 17
58 746 58 58 58 58 17.0 17 17
59 4121 59 59 59 59 17.0 17 17
60 11 60 60 60 60 17.0 17 17
61 4592 61 61 61 61 17.0 17 17
62 1156 62 62 62 62 17.0 17 17
63 4135 63 63 63 63 17.0 17 17
64 5572 64 64 64 64 17.0 17 17
65 5332 65 65 65 65 16.0 16 16
66 51 66 66 66 66 15.0 15 15
67 1159 67 67 67 67 15.0 15 15
68 5897 68 68 68 68 15.0 15 15
69 5454 69 69 69 69 15.0 15 15
70 6144 70 70 70 70 14.0 14 14
71 3021 71 71 71 71 14.0 14 14
72 6025 72 72 72 72 12.0 12 12
73 2761 73 73 73 73 12.0 12 12
74 5879 74 74 74 74 11.0 11 11
75 1369 75 75 75 75 10.0 10 10

Playoff Match Predictions (?)

Remember, match predictions are JUST FOR FUN! Please do not be discouraged by our predictions -- they are almost certainly wrong.

Win/Loss prediction accuracy: 69%

Win/Loss prediction accuracy (>75% confidence): 67%

Match score prediction average error: 29.1

Match Red Alliance Scores:
Actual
(Predicted)
Breach / Capture:
Actual
(Predicted Probability)
Actual Score vs. Predicted Distribution Win/Loss
Prediction
Probability
Win/Loss
Prediction
Correct
Quarterfinals
610 973 319 212
(198)
B / C
95% / 95%
90%
2771 5572 3824 154
(145)
B
59% / 44%
610 973 2474 210
(201)
B / C
95% / 95%
78%
2771 3824 4264 171
(173)
B / C
79% / 75%
2052 2122 3538 222
(195)
B / C
95% / 91%
73%
1918 1718 135 217
(173)
B / C
90% / 60%
2052 2122 3538 215
(200)
B / C
95% / 94%
71%
1918 1718 135 225
(180)
B / C
91% / 64%
2052 2122 3538 212
(203)
B / C
95% / 95%
66%
1918 1718 135 205
(187)
B / C
92% / 72%
225 2590 2067 200
(204)
B / C
95% / 91%
89%
525 4028 1619 206
(162)
B / C
95% / 44%
225 2590 2067 217
(202)
B / C
95% / 90%
83%
4028 525 1619 222
(169)
B / C
95% / 53%
5895 233 1024 185
(195)
B / C
95% / 94%
62%
868 1625 2137 210
(185)
B / C
95% / 66%
1024 233 5895 179
(191)
B / C
95% / 88%
51%
1625 868 2137 169
(190)
B
95% / 71%
1024 233 5895 174
(187)
B / C
95% / 85%
52%
868 1625 2137 141
(188)
B
95% / 68%
Semifinals
610 973 319 0
(200)
B / C
95% / 95%
56%
2052 2122 3538 162
(205)
B
95% / 95%
610 973 319 145
(169)
B
95% / 95%
85%
2052 2122 3538 175
(202)
B / C
95% / 95%
4028 525 1619 147
(180)
B
95% / 64%
56%
5895 233 1024 202
(186)
B / C
95% / 85%
3352 525 1619 119
(146)
B
95% / 27%
92%
5895 233 1024 185
(188)
B / C
95% / 88%
Finals
2052 2122 3538 195
(198)
B / C
95% / 93%
66%
5895 233 1024 147
(187)
B
95% / 87%
2052 2122 3538 192
(197)
B / C
95% / 91%
69%
1024 233 5895 132
(184)
B
95% / 82%